Brain Chips

Paper 3 – Science & Tech

Why You Should Know?

Neuralink, the Elon Musk company has been trying to develop a brain chip that would enable the paralyzed to walk and the blind to see.

In detail –

What is Neuralink ­developing?

• Founded in 2016 by Musk and a group of engineers, Neuralink is building a brain chip interface that can be implanted within the skull, which it says could eventually help disabled patients to move and communicate again, and also restore vision.
• Neuralink’s device has a chip that processes and transmits neural signals that could be transmitted to devices like a computer or a phone.
• The company hopes that a person would potentially be able to control a mouse, keyboard or other computer functions like text messaging with their thoughts.
• “First @Neuralink product will enable someone with paralysis to use a smartphone with their mind faster than someone using thumbs,” Musk said in April 2021.
• Neuralink also believes its device will eventually be able to restore neural activity inside the body, allowing those with spinal cord injuries to move limbs.
• The San Francisco and Austin-based company also aspires to cure neurological conditions such as Alzheimer’s and dementia.

Progress

• Neuralink has produced several examples of testing aspects of its technology successfully on animals, including a video in 2021 that showed a macaque playing a simple videogame after being implanted with a brain chip.
• In a presentation webcast last week, the company showcased improvements in the speed and capabilities of the chip.
• Neuralink has yet to secure U.S. regulatory approval to move to human trials – unlike competitor Synchron, which has less ambitious goals for its medical advances.
• Neuralink has missed Musk’s publicly stated deadlines to start human trials and this year submitted its application to the Food and Drug Administration to begin them.
• Musk said last week he believes Neuralink can start human clinical trials in six months.

Sources – IE

 

ChatGPT chatbot

Paper 3 –Science & Technology

Why You Should Know?

Recently,OpenAI, the company best known for Dall-E — the AI-based text-to-image generator — introduced a new chatbot called ChatGPT.

In detail –

What is ChatGPT?

• OpenAI has created ChatGPT, a start-up focused on artificial intelligence and its potential use cases.
• OpenAI’s notable investors include Microsoft, Khosla Ventures and Reid Hoffman’s charitable foundation.
• Greg Brockman is the company’s chairman and president, while Sam Altman is the CEO. Ilya Sutskever is Open AI’s chief scientist.
• According to OpenAI’s description, ChatGPT can answer “follow-up questions”, and can also “admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests.”
• It is based on the company’s GPT 3.5 series of language learning models (LLM).
• GPT stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 and this is a kind of computer language model that relies on deep learning techniques to produce human-like text based on inputs.
• The model is trained to predict what will come next, and that’s why one can technically have a ‘conversation’ with ChatGPT.
• According to OpenAI’s blog post about ChatGPT, the chatbot was also trained using “Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF).”
• Currently, it is open in beta to all users. One can go to the OpenAI website and sign up to try out ChatGPT.
• The chatbot has already crossed one million users, and you might get a message that the beta is full.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also hinted they might have to monetise this in the future due to the high costs of running these chats.
• OpenAI uses Microsoft Azure’s cloud infrastructure to run these models.
• Interestingly, ChatGPT has been trained to decline ‘inappropriate’ requests, presumably those which are ‘illegal’ in nature.
• However, it should be noted that ChatGPT has limitations, as it may generate incorrect information, and create “biased content.” More importantly, the chatbot’s knowledge of the world and events after 2021 is limited.

Human replacement in writing

• The chatbot gives answers which are grammatically correct and read well– though some have pointed out that these lack context and substance, which is largely true.

Fiction writing

• Is ChatGPT capable of writing fiction? ..Yes, but not at the level of a humans, at least not for now.
• Nor is OpenAI the only company trying to get AI to take over writing. Google had recently showcased how its LaMDA chatbot is being used to help with fiction writing, but it too admitted that this was only a helper right now and cannot take over the entire task.
• Still, ChatGPT showcases an interesting and exciting use case for AI, where humans can have a ‘real’ conversation with a chatbot.

Source – IE

 

Smuggling of Gold

Paper 2 –International Issues

Why You Should Know?

whenever there is a surge in gold imports, gold smuggling also typically goes up.

In detail –

Smuggling on the rise

• According to the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence’s (DRI’s) Smuggling in India Report 2021-22, a total 833 kg of smuggled gold, worth around Rs 500 crore, was confiscated in FY2021-22.
• The year before that (2020-21) had witnessed a decline in smuggling from the Gulf region because flights were cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Smuggling in the last financial year was also a lot less than in 2019-20, when the DRI confiscated 2.62 tonnes of the precious metal worth Rs 858 crore.
• In the three years before that, 2018-19, 2017-18, and 2016-17, gold worth Rs 833.5 crore, Rs 531 crore, and Rs 243 crore respectively were confiscated.
• In all, more than 11 tonnes of gold worth Rs 3,122.8 crore have been seized in 16,555 smuggling cases at airports across India in the five years ending August 2020, the government told Parliament in September 2020.
• However, this is only the gold that was seized, the smuggling that succeeded could be much more than what the agencies confiscated.
• According to the World Gold Council (WGC), smuggling could increase by 33 per cent to touch 160 tonnes in calendar year 2022 compared to the pre-Covid period due to the increase in the import duty on gold to 12.5 per cent from 7.5 per cent.

India’s official gold imports

• Gold imports through official channels, involving a major outflow of foreign exchange, have also been rising.
• Imports worth Rs 3.44 lakh crore were reported in 2021-22, up from Rs 2.54 lakh crore in 2020-21 and Rs 1.99 lakh crore in 2019-20.
• The quantum of import of gold into India is significantly high to meet the huge demand.
• While India, the world’s second-biggest gold consumer after China, imports about 900 tonnes of gold a year, consumption in India was 797.3 tonnes in 2021, the highest in the past five years, according to the World Gold Council.
• India being a negligible producer of gold, the huge demand for gold in the country is met through imports.
• India imports gold dore bar as well as refined gold. In the last five years, imports of gold dore bars made up 30 per cent of the total official imports of the yellow metal in India.

The Northeast smuggling route

• The trends of gold smuggling and seizure data show that 73 per cent of the gold caught had been brought through Myanmar and Bangladesh, the DRI report said.
• Many international reports suggest that smuggled gold is brought into Myanmar from China through the towns of Ruili and Muse on the Chinese and Myanmarese sides of the border respectively.
• Muse is located in the Shan State in Northeastern Myanmar and Ruili is in the Dehong Dai Prefecture of Yunnan Province.

About Directorate of Revenue Intelligence

• The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence is the apex anti-smuggling agency of India, working under the Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India.
• It came into existence on 4th December 1957.
• The DRI with its Headquarters at New Delhi has 12 Zonal Units, 35 regional Units and 15 Sub-regional units, with a working strength of about 800 officials.
• It is tasked with detecting and curbing smuggling of contraband, including drug trafficking and illicit international trade in wildlife and environmentally sensitive items, as well as combating commercial frauds related to international trade and evasion of Customs duty.
• Although in its early days it was committed to combating gold smuggling, it now also works to curb narcotics and economic crimes.

Source – IE

 

GM mustard

Paper 3 –Science & Technology

Why You Should Know?

The Central govt, in advocating the use of GM mustard, has cited economic and food security arguments. Critics maintain the crop can cause lasting harm to environmental and human health.

In detail –

What is hybrid mustard?

• Hybridisation involves crossing two genetically dissimilar plant varieties that can even be from the same species.
• The first-generation (F1) offspring from such crosses tend to have higher yields than what either parent can individually give.
• Such hybridisation isn’t easy in mustard, as its flowers have both female (pistil) and male (stamen) reproductive organs, making the plants largely self-pollinating.
• Since the eggs of one plant cannot be fertilised by the pollen grains from another, it limits the scope for developing hybrids — unlike in cotton, maize or tomato, where this can be done through simple emasculation or physical removal of anthers.

Hybrid mustard DMH-11

• By genetic modification (GM). Scientists at Delhi University’s Centre for Genetic Manipulation of Crop Plants (CGMCP) have developed the hybrid mustard DMH-11 containing two alien genes isolated from a soil bacterium called Bacillus amyloliquefaciens.
• The first gene (‘barnase’) codes for a protein that impairs pollen production and renders the plant into which it is incorporated male-sterile.
• This plant is then crossed with a fertile parental line containing, in turn, the second ‘barstar’ gene that blocks the action of the barnase gene.
• The resultant F1 progeny is both high-yielding and also capable of producing seed/ grain, thanks to the barstar gene in the second fertile line.

The debate

• The debate over the use of genetically modified crops is raging again, with familiar arguments and objections being made. A few weeks ago, the government had cleared the ‘environmental release’ of a genetically modified (GM) variety of mustard, DMH-11, developed by the Centre for Genetic Manipulation of Crop Plants (CGMCP) at Delhi University. ‘Environmental release’, involving seed production and field testing, is the final step before the crop can be cultivated by farmers.
• The government decision was met with expected opposition from activists who oppose any use of GM technology in agriculture. Predictably, the matter has reached the courts. On previous occasions, this has ended with the decision being put on indefinite hold.

Background

• In fact, DMH-11 had reached quite close to being approved for environmental release in 2017 as well, but then had to be stopped under pressure from activists and NGOs.
• The decision to revisit this issue has come in the wake of steadily rising import bills on edible oils.
• The availability of mustard, a commonly used affordable cooking oil, has emerged, more than ever before, as a food security issue.
• Increased yields of mustard can reduce the dependence on other countries for a critical food item, as well as save foreign currency worth tens of billions of dollars every year.
• In fact, the government is treating mustard as a special case among all the GM crops awaiting approval.
• It has maintained that approving the mustard variety would not mean opening the floodgates for all other transgenic crops.
• In the case of mustard, there is a compelling economic and food security argument, which puts it in a separate category.
• There has been no movement, for example, on Bt brinjal, which, like DMH-11, has passed all the safety tests and regulatory processes, but whose release has been on hold since 2010.
• Activists, however, not just dispute the ability of GM mustard to increase yield, but question biosafety data and claim that it will harm human and soil health, cause environmental damage, and threaten the existence of other species, like honeybees.
• These arguments are in line with the opposition to genetically modified crops in general.

Concerns around the crop

• The opposition to GM crops broadly rests on the ‘precautionary principle’, which argues that in the absence of scientific consensus and adequate information, new innovations likely to have severe adverse impacts on human or environmental health must be treated with extreme caution.
• The principle is criticised, even though it is invoked fairly regularly in a variety of circumstances. The sole reliance on this principle for decision-making is often seen as a hurdle to scientific progress, or a justification for inaction.
• GM crops have been under cultivation for three decades now, in different parts of the world, and there is little evidence to suggest that the apocalyptic dangers that are often talked about have appeared anywhere.
• Over 25 countries grow geneticially modified crops, including developed nations like the United States and Canada, middle income countries like Brazil and South Africa, and India’s neighbours like Pakistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh.
• Even in India, Bt cotton, the only GM crop to have been allowed in the country, has been under cultivation for the last 20 years. None of the grave apprehensions that were raised when Bt cotton was being approved have come true.
• In fact, a substantial portion of imported edible oils, as well as some other crops, are of genetically modified varieties. Many Indians have, thus, already consumed genetically modified food without any harm.
• It is true that a scientific consensus on the use of GM technology in agriculture is still elusive. But it is difficult to have complete consensus on any emerging area of science.
• After three decades of use, the weight of scientific opinion seems overwhelmingly in favour of GM technology.
• In fact, while endorsing DMH-11, the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the main academic association of agricultural scientists, had said that most of the opposition to GM crops was based on distortions of scientific data.

Sources – IE

Indonesia’s new criminal code

Paper 2 – International Issues

Why Should You Know?

Indonesia’s new criminal code has recently become a subject of controversy. The criminal code introduces new laws, including bans on sex outside marriage, insulting the president, and expressing any opinion that goes against the ideology of the state. to do is included.

In details –

What is controversial?

• Among the most contentious articles are those that criminalise sex outside marriage with a punishment of up to one year in jail. Cohabitation between unmarried couples is also banned.
• The laws have been partially watered down from an earlier version of the bill so that they can only be reported by some people, such as a spouse, parent or child of the offenders.
• Still, critics are concerned the laws can be used to police morality in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, which has seen a rise in religious conservatism in recent years.
• And since they also apply to foreigners, the laws can scare away visitors, including those coming to the prime tourism destination of Bali.
• Currently Indonesia bans adultery but not premarital sex.
• In addition, the articles that ban insulting the president or state institutions, blasphemy, protesting without notification and spreading views deemed to run counter to Indonesia’s secular state ideology have also raised fears about threats to freedom of expression and association.
• An article on customary law has triggered concern that some sharia-inspired local bylaws could be replicated in other areas, reinforcing discrimination against women or LGBT groups.

Who will be affected?

• The new laws will apply to Indonesian citizens and foreigners alike, but will not come into effect for another three years as implementing guidelines are drafted.
• Weeks after hosting a successful Group of Twenty (G20) summit that reinforced Indonesia’s position on the global stage, business groups say the new code threatens to damage the country’s image as a tourist and investment destination.
• Indonesia is trying to entice foreign visitors back after the pandemic and the national tourism board described the new code as “totally counter-productive”.

Why has the new code been introduced?

• Indonesia has been discussing revising its criminal code since declaring independence from the Dutch in 1945.
  • Moving on from colonial-era laws, the government wants to create a criminal code “in line with Indonesian values”.
  • Indonesia’s population is predominantly Muslim but there is a sizeable group of Hindus, Christians and people of other faiths.
  • Most Indonesian Muslims practice a moderate version of Islam, but in recent years religious conservatism has seeped into politics.
  • The new code was passed with the support of all parties in the parliament, which is dominated by a large government coalition, as well as Islamist parties and groups.

Sources – IE

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

Paper 3 – Economy

Why You Should Know?

On December 7, 2022 the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India hiked the key policy rate means repo rate.

In detail –

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India hiked the key policy rate, the repo rate or the rate at which the RBI lends funds to banks, by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to rein in retail inflation.

• The MPC also lowered its growth forecast to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent for the current financial year amid concerns over the “bleak” global economic outlook, and retained its retail inflation forecast at 6.7 per cent.

Impact of  RBI’s decision

• Lending rates of banks are expected to go up as the cost of funds is expected to rise further.
• EMIs on vehicle, home and personal loans will also rise.
• The external benchmark linked lending rate (EBLR) of banks will rise by 35 bps — one basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point— as such loans are linked to the Repo rate. As much as 43.6 per cent of the total loans are now linked to the Repo rate.
• Marginal cost of funds-based lending rates (MCLR), which accounts for 49.2 per cent of the loans portfolio of banks, are also expected to move up.
• The hike will help in moderating inflation in the country.
• Deposit rates are also expected to rise in the near future. SBI, India’s largest bank, now offers a 6.10 per cent rate on one-year term deposits.

Why did the Monetary Committee raise the rate?

• The RBI has hiked the policy rate in a bid to bring down inflation from the current level.
• Inflation in October eased to 6.77 per cent, a three-month low, but it remains well above the RBI’s comfort level of 4 per cent.
• But the worry for the central bank is the rise in core inflation — the non-food, non oil part of inflation — that edged up again after moderating over the summer.
• Also households’ inflation expectations remain high as food price inflation continues to remain elevated.
• Weakness in the rupee against the US dollar is adding to inflationary concerns at the RBI given that a third of the CPI basket consists of import.

RBI’s growth and inflation forecast

• Under the flexible inflation targeting framework, the RBI is expected to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent (+/-2 per cent).
• The rate setting panel lowered the real gross domestic product (GDP) for fiscal 2022-23 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent in the previous projection announced during the September policy.
• The MPC retained the inflation projection at 6.7 per cent for 2022-23.

About Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is a committee constituted by the Central Government and led by the Governor of RBI.
• The Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for fixing the benchmark interest rate in India.
• The committee comprises six members – three officials of the Reserve Bank of India and three external members nominated by the government of India.
• The meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee are held at least four times a year (specifically, at least once a quarter) and it publishes its decisions after each such meeting.
• The Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, was amended by Finance Act (India), 2016, to constitute MPC which will bring more transparency and accountability in fixing India’s monetary policy.
• The monetary policy are published after every meeting with each member explaining his opinions.
• The committee is answerable to the government of India if the inflation exceeds the range prescribed for three consecutive quarters.[

Sources – TOI

National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC)

Paper 3 – Disaster Management

Why You Should Know?

Recently National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) meets to review preparedness for possible cyclonic storm over Bay of Bengal.

In detail –

Cyclone Mandous

• The Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD), briefed the Committee about the current status of the weather system in the Bay of Bengal, which is likely to move West-Northwestwards and concentrate into a Depression over South East Bay of Bengal by today evening.
• Thereafter, it is likely to continue to move West-Northwestwards, intensify further into a cyclonic storm around December 07 evening and reach South West Bay of Bengal off North Tamil Nadu-Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts by 08 December morning.
• It will continue to move West-Northwestwards towards North Tamil Nadu-Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts during subsequent 48 hours.
• The name of this cyclone has been suggested by United Arab Emirates.

Rescue Preparedness

• Chief Secretaries of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and senior officials from Puducherry apprised the Committee of the preparatory measures being taken to protect the population in the expected path of the cyclonic storm and measures being taken by the local administration, such as fishermen being asked not to venture out into the sea and calling those at sea back to safe berth and emergency services being kept in readiness.
• NDRF has made 5 teams available to Tamil Nadu and 3 teams for Puducherry as asked for by them and teams are also being kept on standby for Andhra Pradesh to be activated as and when the State Government desires.
• Rescue and relief teams of the Army and Navy along with ships and aircraft have been kept ready on standby.
• The Coast Guard is also ready with its ships.

About National Crisis Management Committee

• A National Crisis Management Committee is a committee set up by the Government of India in the wake of a natural calamity for effective coordination and implementation of relief measures and operations.
• It is headed by Cabinet Secretary.
• On the constitution of such a committee, the Agriculture Secretary shall provide all necessary information to and seek directions.

Composition-

• A National Crisis Management Committee(NCMC) has been constituted in the Cabinet Secretariat.
• The composition of the Committee is as under:-
• Cabinet Secretary Chairman,
• Secretary to Prime Minister Member,
• Secretary (MHA) Member,
• Secretary (MCD) Member,
• Director (IB) Member,
• Secretary (R&AW) Member,
• Secretary (Agri &Coopn.) Co-opted Member,
• An officer of Cabinet Secretariat.

Sources – PIB

 

eSanjeevani

Paper 2 – Health

Why You Should Know?

In a significant achievement, eSanjeevani, Govt. of India’s free telemedicine service, has crossed another astounding milestone by clocking 8 crore teleconsultations.

In detail –

• The last 1 crore consultations were recorded in a remarkable time frame of around 5 weeks, signaling a wider adoption of telemedicine.

What is eSanjeevani?

• An e-health initiative of Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, eSanjeevani is a national telemedicine service that strives to provide an alternative to the conventional physical consultations via digital platform.
• In less than 3 years, this initiative has garnered the distinction of being the world’s largest government owned telemedicine platform.
• It consists of two verticals that cater to patients across all states and UTs successfully making its presence felt in the innermost regions of the nation.

eSanjeevaniAB-HWC

• The first vertical eSanjeevaniAB-HWC endeavors to bridge rural-urban digital health divide by providing assisted teleconsultations, and ensuring that e beneficiaries of Ayushman Bharat Scheme are able to avail of the benefits they are entitled to.
• This vertical operates on a Hub-and-Spoke model wherein the ‘Ayushman Bharat-Health and Wellness Centers’ (HWCs) are set up at state level, act as spokes, which are mapped with the hub (comprising MBBS/ Specialty/Super-Specialty doctors) at zonal level.
• With the objective to provide quality health services to a patient residing in rural areas, this model has been successfully implemented in 1,09,748 Ayushman Bharat Health and Wellness Centres (AB-HWCs) and 14,188 Hubs, achieving a total of 7,11,58,968 teleconsultations.

eSanjeevani OPD

• eSanjeevaniOPD is the latter vertical which caters to citizens in both rural and urban alike.
• It leverages technology via smartphones, tablets, laptops enabling doctor consultations to be accessible from the patient’s residence regardless of location.
• eSanjeevaniOPD has acquired 1,144 online OPDs with 2,22,026 specialists, doctors and health workers that have been trained and onboarded.
• This platform has an impressive record of having served over 4.34 lakhs patients in one day.
• Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), Mohali, which is providing holistic technical training and support to users, is augmenting the faculties of this vertical to be able to serve up to 1 million patients per day.

Leading States

• eSanjeevani is a cohesive part Ayushman Bharat Digital Health Mission (ABDM), and more than 45,000 ABHA IDs have been generated via eSanjeevani application.
• Leading ten states for usage of this platform are:
• Andhra Pradesh
• West Bengal
• Karnataka
• Tamil Nadu
• Maharashtra
• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Bihar
• Telangana
• Gujarat

Sources – PIB

 

India-Maldives Cooperation

Paper 2 – International Relations

Why You Should Know?

Recently Capacity Building of Secretary Generals of Atolls Councils of Maldives started.

In detail –

• As a part of Indian Goverments’s approach of ‘neighbourhood first’ policy, India is building capacities of civil servants of neighbouring countries to meet the emerging challenges in governance and assured public service delivery to improve the quality of life of people.
• The National Centre for Good Governance (NCGG) has entered into an MoU with the Civil Service Commission of Maldives for capacity building of 1,000 Maldives civil servants by 2024.
• The agreement was signed during the state visit of the Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, to Male on 8th June 2019.
• As part of the agreement, NCGG is the nodal institution for designing customized training modules after considering the requirements of the countries and their implementation.
• So far, more than 550 officers of Maldives Civil Service including the Permanent Secretaries of the Govt of Maldives have been imparted training in India.
• The 18th capacity building programme started in Delhi from the 5th of December for the Secretary Generals of various atolls councils of Maldives.

Training module

• The training module includes lessons from various initiatives taken in India such as e-governance, digital India, CPGRAMS, approach to sustainable development goals, public health initiatives, water security on islands among other important areas.
• It also includes exposure visits to prominent places like the Pradhan Mantri Sanghralaya, the office of UIDAI, the Parliament, etc. where participants will see the best practices in e-governance.

About Maldives

• The Maldives or Maldive Islands, officially the Republic of Maldives, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean, is made of a double chain of 26 atolls between Minicoy Island and the Chagos Archipelago, extending north-south from India’s Lakshadweep island.
• It is situated in the Lakshadweep Sea, about seven hundred kilometers from the south-west direction of Sri Lanka.
• It has 1,192 islands, out of which 200 are inhabited.
• The capital and largest city of the Republic of Maldives is Male.
• Maldives is the smallest country in Asia, both in terms of population and area.
• The Maldives holds the record for being the lowest country in the world, with a maximum natural ground level of only 2.3 m (7 ft 7 in).
• The waters surrounding the Maldives are abundant in rare species of biological and commercial value, with tuna fishing traditionally being one of the country’s main commercial resources.
• Maldives has an amazing diversity of sea life. It has coral and more than 2,000 types of fish, from reef eels to reef sharks, moray eels and several types of rays: manta rays, sting rays and eagle rays. Maldivian waters are also home to whale sharks.
• Tourism is the mainstay of Maldivian economy.

Sources – PIB

India Development Report

Paper 3 – Economy

Why You Should Know?

The World Bank on December 6 lifted its growth forecast for India’s economy this year to 6.9%, after having downgraded it to 6.5% in October, citing resilience in economic activity despite a deteriorating external environment.

In detail –

Key points of report

• The World Bank’s India Development Update report — Navigating the Storm — upgraded the country’s growth prediction on the basis of its September quarter performance “driven by strong private consumption and investment” that saw 6.3% growth in its GDP.
• The World Bank revised India’s 2022-23 GDP growth forecast upward to 6.9% from 6.5% estimated in October after factoring in “a strong outturn” in the second quarter of the current financial year. India is “well placed” to navigate global headwinds.
• “The government’s focus on bolstering capital expenditure also supported domestic demand in the first half of FY 22/23.
• In addition, India overtook the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world,” the multilateral bank said.
• “High frequency indicators indicate continued robust growth of domestic demand at the start of Q3 FY22/23.” India grew 13.5% in the first quarter of 2022-23.
• This is the first report of any international institution to upwardly revise India’s economic performance, even as growth forecasts of major economies have been downgraded significantly.
• The report forecasts that the Indian economy will grow at 6.6% in the next financial year (2023-24), which is lower than its earlier projection of 7%.
• The October edition of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook also projected India’s GDP growth for 2022-23 and 2023-24 at 6.8% and 6.1%, respectively.
• Rapid monetary policy tightening in advanced economies has resulted in large portfolio outflows and depreciation of the rupee, while high global commodity prices have led to a widening of the current account deficit, the World Bank said.
• However, India’s economy is “relatively insulated” from global headwinds, partly because India has a “large domestic market” and is “relatively less exposed” to international trade flows, it added.
• Despite that, India is not completely isolated from the global downturn. The report said that a one percentage point decline in growth in the US is associated with a 0.4 percentage point decline in India’s growth.
• However, the effect is around 1.5 times larger for other emerging economies, it said. Analysis for growth spillovers from the European Union and China also yields similar results, it added.
• Policy reforms and prudent regulatory measures have made India a resilient economy, the World Bank report said.

Sources – TH