Only 1% of Women in 15-49 Age Group Consume Alcohol: NFHS-5 Report
Paper 1 – INDIAN SOCIETY
Why You Should Know?
• While it is known that alcohol consumption has always been high among men, the recently released National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) for 2019-2021 has found that only 1% of women, aged 15-49, drink alcohol in the country, compared to 22% of men. The overall consumption is high in rural areas, stated the report.
• In Karnataka, 0.3% of women consume alcohol, below the national average. But 23.1%. of men do so, which is higher than the national average.
• The percentage of women who consume alcohol is the highest in Arunachal Pradesh (18%), followed by Sikkim (15%).
• Alcohol use among men is the highest in Goa (59%), followed by Arunachal Pradesh (57%), and Telangana (50%), while it is the lowest in Lakshadweep (1%).
• Among women who drink alcohol, 17% consume it almost every day and 37% drink about once a week. Among men, while 15% consume almost daily, 43% drink about once a week, and 42% do less than once a week.
• Drinking alcohol is more common among women from Scheduled Tribes (4%) than from any other caste/ tribe group.
• Consumption is also most common among Christian men (36%) and men belonging to “other” religions (49%).
• The “other” religions here are those apart from the Hindu, the Muslim, the Christian, the Sikh, the Buddhist/Neo-Buddhist, and the Jain communities.
• Drinking is also seen in 33% of men with less than 5 years of schooling, 34% of those from Scheduled Tribes, and 30%. of those in the age group of 35-49.
• Overall the proportion of men who drink alcohol decreased from 29% to 22% between NFHS-4 in 2015-2016 and NFHS-5 in 2019-2021.
• During that period, the proportion of women who drink has remained unchanged, according to the report.
The National Family Health Survey
• The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) is a large-scale, multi-round survey conducted in a representative sample of households throughout India.
• Three rounds of the survey have been conducted since the first survey in 1992-93.
• The survey provides state and national information for India on fertility, infant and child mortality, the practice of family planning, maternal and child health, reproductive health, nutrition, anaemia, utilization and quality of health and family planning services.
• Each successive round of the NFHS has had two specific goals: a) to provide essential data on health and family welfare needed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and other agencies for policy and programme purposes, and b) to provide information on important emerging health and family welfare issues.
• The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India, designated the International Institute for Population Sciences(IIPS) Mumbai, as the nodal agency, responsible for providing coordination and technical guidance for the survey.
• IIPS collaborated with a number of Field Organizations (FO) for survey implementation. Each FO was responsible for conducting survey activities in one or more states covered by the NFHS.
Paper 2 – INTERNATIONAL RELATION
Why You Should Know?
• In million tonnes, the amount of grain exported by Ukraine in April despite the war between the country and Russia from February this year, according to Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi.
• Ukraine has sown about seven million hectares of spring crops so far, 25-30% less than in the corresponding period of 2021.
• He underlined the importance of exports of Ukrainian grain via Romania while Russia is blockading ports, but said those exports could be complicated in the next two months.
Why is India set to export a record 7 million tonnes wheat?
• India is set to export a record 7 million tonnes of wheat this year as a rally in global prices gives the world’s second biggest producer of the grain an opportunity to gain market share, a top government official said.
Which is the best port in India to export food grains?
• There are about 11 top exporting ports in India which trade Food Grains from India, ICD Loni exports the majority of Food Grains shipments from India with the share of 28.0% , followed by Nhava Sheva Sea with 21.0%. Moving to top importing ports for Food Grains from India.
CPEC Projects Delayed
Paper 2 – INTERNATIONAL RELATION
PAPER 3 – ECONOMY
Why You Should Know?
• The number of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects completed out of the 15 to be completed by Pakistan, and is running behind schedule, according to a report by the Express Tribune on Sunday.
• Out of the $60 billion worth of projects, only projects worth three million dollars have been completed in Gwadar.
• The ambitious CPEC is a 3,000-km long route of infrastructure projects connecting China’s northwest Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and the Gwadar Port in the western Pakistan province of Balochistan.
WHAT IS CPEC?
• The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an assortment of infrastructure projects currently under development in Pakistan.
• The cumulative value of all CPEC projects is $62 billion with future projects expected to amplify the valuation considerably.
• CPEC intends to massively improve the Pakistan economy by rapidly enhancing the country’s infrastructure including modern transportation networks, energy projects, and special economic zones.
• Although CPEC work is still in its infancy stages it has already helped Pakistan ascend the global competitiveness scale.
• According to a report by PWC Pakistan will be the world’s 20th largest economy by the year 2030 and CPEC will result in the creation of over 2.3 million new jobs.
• CPEC has significant strategic and economic importance for China and Pakistan as it links China with markets in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
• Xinjiang, China’s largest province, will be connected with the port of Gwadar in Balochistan.
• Launched in 2015, CPEC is the flagship project of BRI. Declared by China’s President Xi as ‘the project of the century’, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will deliver an estimated $5 trillion worth of investment into the infrastructure of 52 countries.
• BRI will reinvigorate the old Maritime Silk trading route and increase connectivity between the Asian, European and African continents.
• Pakistan is one of the countries that will benefit significantly from BRI, with the port city of Gwadar in a prime location for investment.
• The CPEC map of major projects currently in development Please note that we have marked only the major projects involved in CPEC.
HOW DOES CPEC BENEFIT PAKISTAN?
• Ongoing CPEC projects offer many advantages for Pakistan in terms of infrastructure that will drastically transform the country for the better.
• As the gateway city to CPEC, improvements begin at the main shipping port of Gwadar.
• A huge $4.8bn injection will upgrade the town, making it a modern port city of international standards, a vibrant metropolitan city and South Asia’s busiest trading hub by 2023.
• 50,000 professional jobs are expected in the future bringing with them significant spending power that will drive the regional economy in terms of goods, services and development.
• With the expected population growth, it is necessary for CPEC to account for the power consumption needs of the local community.
• The new Quaid-e-Azam Solar Power Park in Bahawalpur is expected to generate 100 MW of clean energy for Pakistan.
• An additional $35bn is being spent by China to construct 19 new power plants.
• First-rate transport networks are very important for any developing country.
• CPEC has earmarked millions for the establishment of new roads and train links as well as the improvement of current networks, with over 2,000 km of extensive construction connecting China to Gwadar.
• In order for Pakistan to be propelled into the future there is the need for a robust digital and technological solution.
• Growth of the country’s IT infrastructure will be enhanced by over 820 km of fibre optic cabling.
• China is also rolling out additional support for 4G mobile networking with $225 million of investment that will in turn boost smartphone usage. Google has already cited Pakistan as one of the fastest growing digital populations in the world.
PAPER 3 – Science & Technology
Why You Should Know?
• In January, a person in the United States became the first recipient of a pig-heart transplant.
• He died two months later, and doctors now say the genetically edited pig heart carried a porcine virus that could have contributed to his death.
• The main concern is that the virus can damage the heart.
What is a a virus?
• A virus is a submicroscopic infectious agent that replicates only inside the living cells of an organism.
• Viruses infect all life forms, from animals and plants to microorganisms, including bacteria and archaea.
Human heart be transplanted from a pig?
• Pig heart valves have been transplanted into humans for many years.
• In October, surgeons successfully tested the transplant of a genetically modified pig kidney into a woman in New York who was brain-dead.
What are India’s Plans to Avert a Wheat Crisis?
Paper 3- Indian Economy
Why You Should Know?
• The story so far: On May 4, the government lowered its wheat production estimates by 5.7% to 105 million tonnes (MT) from the projected 111.32 MT for the crop year ending June.
• The production is expected to fall on account of unusually warm weather conditions that persisted during March to April in most parts of the key grain-producing States of Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh as well as Uttar Pradesh.
• Till May 4, wheat procurement in the ongoing winter (rabi) marketing season too had seen a drop, with the Centre procuring 17.5 MT of wheat, which is likely to touch 19.5 MT when the season ends.
• In the last marketing year, the government had purchased 43.3 MT of wheat from farmers, and this year it had set a target of 44.4 MT.
• The announcement came around the same time as a report by the World Food Programme, which said the “unfolding war in Ukraine” was likely to “exacerbate the already severe 2022 acute food insecurity forecasts” in countries.
Why has wheat production dwindled?
• India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world, with China being the top producer and Russia the third largest – Ukraine is the world’s eighth largest producer of wheat.
• After five straight years of a bumper wheat output, India has had to revise downwards its estimated production.
• Unprecedented heatwaves across the north, west and central parts of the country, and March and April being the hottest in over 100 years, have caused substantial loss to the yield at 6%, with 20% of the wheat grain shrivelling up.
• Some estimates have pegged the shrivelling as high as 80% of the crop purchased by the government.
• For instance, according to crop cutting experiments, conducted by the Punjab Agriculture Department every year, the State’s yield per hectare could have fallen 5-10% compared to last year’s yield.
• Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey attributed the lower estimates to “early summer” affecting the crop yields in States, especially Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.
What about government procurement?
• This year the government’s wheat purchase has seen a dip owing to several reasons from lower yield to higher market prices being offered by private traders.
• A large quantity of wheat was being bought by traders at a higher rate than the minimum support price (MSP).
• Private traders have been prompted to buy more wheat from farmers as the price of wheat at the international level has shot up and is expected to rise due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
• In Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, farmers are selling to traders-exporters at prices (21-24 per kg), which is better than the MSP (rate of 20.15 per kg). Also, farmers are holding on to some quantity of wheat, expecting higher prices for their produce in the near future.
How will this impact the public distribution of grain?
• Wheat procurement is undertaken by the state-owned Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other agencies at MSP to meet the requirements under the Public Distribution System (PDS) and other welfare schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) introduced during the pandemic.
• The government has revised the grain allocation under PMGKAY for May to September 2022. According to the new guidelines, the FCI will fill the gap left by wheat with an increased allocation of rice.
• An additional 5.5 MT rice is being allocated to the States to fill the gap in supplying wheat grain.
• Under the National Food Security Act (NFSA), he said the annual requirement is roughly about 35 MT. Pointing out that from next year, fortified rice will be distributed to the entire Public Distribution System (PDS), he said with surplus rice stocks, the country is in a comfortable situation.
Will domestic wheat prices be hit?
• As government wheat procurement has dipped, concerns are being raised about the stability of prices in the country and the availability of grain for internal consumption, which many agri-experts argue should be a priority.
• The key question, according to Mr. Panwar, is in a scenario where private traders start dictating the price in the domestic market, will the buffer stock be used under the Open Market Sale Scheme to control the market price or will it be used for the NFSA and other welfare schemes.
• The government has dismissed concerns about both prices and stocks, asserting that India is in a comfortable situation with the overall availability of grains and stocks expected to be higher than the minimum requirement for the next one year.
• The requirement of welfare schemes in the year ahead, on April 1, 2023, India would have stocks of 8 MT of wheat, well above the minimum requirement of 7.5 MT.
Will farmers benefit?
• Farmers will certainly benefit from the scenario as they are being offered a price above the MSP.
• Amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis, new markets in countries like Israel, Egypt, Tanzania and Mozambique have opened up for India.
• However, on the other hand, if private traders continue to buy above MSP, eventually that could stoke inflation.
• This trade relationship will stay even when the global crisis is over, which means farmers will get about 10%-15% extra price as market prices are ruling above MSP.
What about export plans?
• Till now, 4 MT wheat has been contracted for export and about 1.1 MT has been exported in April 2022.
• After Egypt, Turkey has also given approval for the import of Indian wheat. India has been eyeing deals with new export markets in European Union countries too.
• Compared to record wheat exports of 7.85 MT in the fiscal year 2021-22, the Centre had estimated exports of 12 MT for 2022-23, to cash in on the market rally in global prices following the Ukraine crisis.
• Global wheat prices rose nearly 50% since the start of this year as supplies from Russia, the number one wheat exporter, and Ukraine, number six, were hit.
• Despite the crop loss and revision of the output estimate, the Centre maintained that no curbs would be placed on wheat exports and that it was facilitating traders.
• Market observers estimate exports will be lower than projected earlier at about 10 MT amid low or damaged output.
How is the global supply situation shaping up?
• In order to meet the gap created by reduced Russian and Ukrainian exports, importers are turning to alternative markets, while wheat-producing countries like India are looking to increase exports.
• According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the export estimates of Brazil, which is traditionally an importer of wheat, is pegged at 2.5 MT, nearly three times its total last year.
• The South American country has even found new markets, with its wheat exports to West Asian nations jumping over 400%, according to Reuters.
• Argentina, traditionally a big exporter of wheat, too saw a further rise in exports despite lower than usual production.
• The USDA, however, says that these increased exports will not be enough to make up for the nearly 30% of global exports hit by the Ukraine crisis.
Paper 3- Indian Economy
Why You Should Know?
• The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) is expected to issue a draft regulation for labels on front of food packets that will inform consumers if a product is high in salt, sugar and fat.
• It is expected to propose a system under which stars will be assigned to a product, which has earned the ire of public health experts and consumer organisations who say it will be misleading and ineffective.
• Health experts are demanding that the FSSAI instead recommend the “warning label” system which has proven to have altered consumer behaviour.
Why do we need front-of-package labelling?
• In the past three decades, the country’s disease patterns have shifted. While mortality due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases has declined and India’s population is living longer, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries are increasingly contributing to the overall disease burden.
• In 2016, NCDs accounted for 55% of premature death and disability in the country. Indians also have a disposition for excessive fat around the stomach and abdomen which leads to increased risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.
• According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-2021), 47.7% of men and 56.7% of women have high risk waist-to-hip ratio.
• An increased consumption of packaged and junk food has also led to a double burden of undernutrition and Overnutrition among children. Over half of the children and adolescents, whether under-nourished or with
• normal weight, are at risk of cardiovascular normal weight, are at risk of cardiovascular diseases, according to an analysis by the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey in India (2016-2018).
• Reducing sugar, salt, and fat is among the best ways to prevent and control non-communicable diseases.
• While the FSSAI requires mandatory disclosure of nutrition information on food packets, this is located on the back of a packet and is the back of a packet and is difficult to interpret.
What decision has FSSAT taken?
• At a stakeholder’s meeting on February 15, 2022, three important decisions were taken on what would be the content of the draft regulations on front-of-package labelling.
• These included threshold levels to be used to determine whether a food product was high in sugar, salt and fat; that the implementation will be voluntary for a period of four years before it is made mandatory, and that the health-star rating system would be used as labels on the basis of a study commissioned by the FSSAI and conducted by IIM-Ahmedabad.
• The food industry agreed with the FSSAI’s decision on the issue of mandatory implementation and use of ratings, and sought more time to study the issue of thresholds.
• The World Health Organization representative said the thresholds levels were lenient, while the consumer organisations opposed all three decisions.
• The biggest contention is over the use of a health-star rating system that uses 1/2 a star to five stars to indicate the overall nutrition profile of a product.
Why is there opposition to the rating system?
• In a health star rating system, introduced in 2014 in Australia and New Zealand, a product is assigned a certain number of stars using a calculator designed to assess positive (e.g., fruit, nut, protein content, etc) and risk nutrients in food (calories, saturated fat, total sugar, sodium).
• Scientists have said that such a system misrepresents nutrition science and the presence of fruit in a fruit drink juice does not offset the impact of added sugar.
• Experts say that so far there is no evidence of the rating system impacting consumer behaviour.
• The stars can also lead to a ‘health halo’ because of their positive connotation making it harder to identify harmful products.
• Over 40 global experts have also called the TIM-Ahmedabad study flawed in design and interpretation.
• There are many other labelling systems in the world, such as “warning labels” in Chile (which uses black octagonal or stop symbols) and Israel (a red label) for products high in sugar, salt and fat.
• The “NutriScore’, used in France, presents a coloured scale of A to E, and the Multiple Traffic Light (MTL), used in the U.K. and other countries depict red (high), amber (medium) or green (low) lights to indicate the risk factors.
• Global studies have shown a warning label is the only format that has led to a positive impact on food and beverage purchases forcing the industry, for example in Chile, to reformulate their products to remove major amounts of sugar and salt.
Is La Nina a fair weather friend of our country?
Paper 1- Indian Goegraphy
Why You Should Know?
• In most years, meteorologists consider the La Nina to be a friend of India. The phenomenon associated with below normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, makes the summer monsoon wetter and the winter colder unlike its evil twin, the El Nino, or a warming phenomenon that frequently dries up monsoon rains over India.
• This year, however, the La Nina is being blamed for worsening perhaps the longest spell of heatwaves from March to April in north, west and Central India.
• Periodic pattern Formally known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the La Nina-El Nino phenomenon follows a periodic pattern that roughly lasts three years.
• During a La Nina winter, a north-south pressure pattern sets up over India and normally this influences the trade winds that bring rains to India.
• However, because the La Nina didn’t peak, the sea surface temperatures continued to be cold and this drove hot westerly winds and blasts of hot air from the Middle East into Pakistan and India.
• “The north-south pressure pattern has been persisting over India, with La Nina extending its stay over the Pacific.
• While land temperatures over India begin rising in March, they are usually punctuated by western disturbances, or moisture from the Mediterranean region that fall as rain over north and western India.
• For these currents to make it as far as India, they need a significant difference in temperature between Europe and the latitudes over India.
• According to a 2021 report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, ‘Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region’, all India averaged frequency of summer heatwaves is expected to rise to about 2.5 events per season by the mid-21st century, with a further slight rise to about 3.0 events by the end of 21st century under current trajectory of greenhouse gas emission.
What New Finds at Harappan Site Could Mean
Paper 1- Ancient India History
Why You Should Know?
• The latest round of excavations at the 5,000-year-old Harappan site of Rakhigarhi in Haryana’s Hisar has revealed the structure of some houses, lanes and a drainage system, and what could possibly be a jewellery-making unit’.
Alook at these finds and what they mean for our knowledge of the site:
• The skeletons of two women were found at Mound No.7, believed to be nearly 5,000 years old.
• Pots and other artefacts were found buried next to the remains, part of funerary rituals back.
• DNA samples have been sent for tests, whose outcome might provide clues about the ancestry and food habits of people who lived in the region thousands of years ago. The mound had yielded around 60 burials in previous excavations.
• SK Manjul, who is leading the excavation team, said the DNA analysis will help answer a lot of questions, anthropological or otherwise.
• Preliminary scientific tests will be done by the Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleosciences, Lucknow, before the samples being sent elsewhere for further forensic analysis from ananthropological perspective.
SIGNS OF SETTLEMENT:
• This is the first time excavations have been done on Mound No. 3, which has revealed what appears to be “an aristocratic settlement”; ASI officials said more rounds of excavation will be needed to ascertain its structure and nature.
• In all Harappan sites excavated so far, there have been similar signs of three tiers of habitation – ‘common settlements’ with mud brick walls, elite settlement with burnt brick walls alongside mud brick walls, and possible ‘middle-rung settlements’.
• Researchers are yet to determine whether these three levels were based on community or occupation. Clues may surface when excavations resume at Mound No. 3 in September.
• Other noteworthy finds include steatite seals, terracotta bangles, terracotta unbaked sealing with relief of elephants, and the Harappan script. Arvin Manjul, Regional Director (North), ASI, said the team also recovered some Harappan sealings (impression of a seal on a surface), indicating that seals were used to mark objects belonging to a set of people or community, as they are today.
• She said the 1,000-odd objects recovered this season come from the mature-Harappan period. Archaeologically, the span of the Harappan Civilisation is subdivided into three periods -early(3300 BC to 2600 BC), mature (2600 BC to 1900 BC), and late (1900 BC to 1700 BC). Five urban sites – Mohenjo-Daro, Harappa, Ganweriwala (now in Pakistan), and Rakhigarhi and Dholavira (India) -have been identified as centres of the Civilisation.
• A large number of steatite beads, beads of semi-precious stones, shells, and objects made of agate and carnelian have been recovered.
• The excavation, which has been going on at three of the seven mounds, has also unearthed pieces of copper and gold jewellery.
• Possible remains of a 5,000-year-old jewellery making unit have been traced, which signifies that trading was also done from the city.
• That since there was no quarry of stones like lapis lazuli or shells in the region, the discovery shows extensive trade from areas as far away as Afghanistan, where lapis was found.
• Harappa is an archaeological site in Punjab, Pakistan, about 24 km (15 mi) west of Sahiwal.
• The site takes its name from a modern village located near the former course of the Ravi River which now runs 8 km (5.0 mi) to the north.
• The current village of Harappa is less than 1 km (0.62 mi) from the ancient site. Although modern Harappa has a legacy railway station from the British Raj period, it is a small crossroads town of 15,000 people today.
• The core of the Harappan civilization extended over a large area, from Gujarat in the south, across Sindh and Rajasthan and extending into Punjab and Haryana.
• Numerous sites have been found outside the core area, including some as far east as Uttar Pradesh and as far west as Sutkagen-dor on the Makran coast of Baluchistan, not far from Iran.
• The site of the ancient city contains the ruins of a Bronze Age fortified city, which was part of the Indus Valley Civilisation centred in Sindh and the Punjab, and then the Cemetery H culture.
• The city is believed to have had as many as 23,500 residents and occupied about 150 hectares (370 acres) with clay brick houses at its greatest extent during the Mature Harappan phase (2600 BC – 1900 BC), which is considered large for its time.
• Per archaeological convention of naming a previously unknown civilisation by its first excavated site, the Indus Valley Civilisation is also called the Harappan Civilisation.
• The ancient city of Harappa was heavily damaged under British rule, when bricks from the ruins were used as track ballast in the construction of the Lahore–Multan Railway.
• In 2005, a controversial amusement park scheme at the site was abandoned when builders unearthed many archaeological artefacts during the early stages of building work.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN ARENAMED
Paper 1 – Geography
Why You Should Know?
• Cyclone ASANI, which has developed over the Bay of Bengal, was named by Sri Lanka in an international list released in 2020.
• The last cyclone over the North Indian Ocean was Jawad, named by Saudi Arabia. The next one, whenever it arrives, will be Cyclone Sitrang, named by Thailand.
• Globally, there are six regional specialised meteorological centres (RSMCs), each mandated to name cyclones in its region.
• One RSMC is the India Meteorological Department (IMD), mandated to name cyclones over the North Indian Ocean that includes the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
• The names are proposed by 13 member countries: Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, UAE, Yemen.
LIST OF NAMES:
• The RSMC for the North Indian Ocean has been following its current system of naming cyclones since 2000.
• Each member country submits an equal number of names, which are genderneutral. The countries are listed alphabetically in a column, with a row of cyclone names against each country.
• The list released in 2020 has 169 names, 13 from each member country. Starting from the first name in the first column, cyclone names are successively taken moving down each column.
• After reaching the end of the first column, the next name is the first one in the second column, after which the same pattern is followed.
• Since June 2020, when Cyclone Nisarga struck, 10 of these cyclones have occurred so far, including Asani (see table).
• Once the 169 names on the list are exhausted, the countries on the panel will submit a fresh list of names, and the same procedure will be followed again.
Super cyclones in India, Bangla
Paper 1 – Geography
Why You Should Know?
• A New study has found that super cyclones are likely to have a much more devastating impact on people in South Asia in future years.
• The paper was published in the Royal Meteorological Society journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability a day when the India Meteorological Department was tracking Asani, classified as a severe cyclonic storm and predicted to weaken into a cyclone.
• The research, led by the University of Bristol and including scientists from Bangladesh, tists from Bangladesh, looked at the 2020 Super Cyclone Amphan, the most costly cyclone to have made landfall in South Asia.
• They projected its consequences in different scenarios of sea level rise due to global warming.
• The researchers used sophisticated climate model projections to anticipate the scale of those affected by cyclones in the rest of this century.
• They found that if the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continues at the same scale, more than two-and-a-half times (250%) the population in India, as compared to the 2020 event, would experience flooding of greater than 1 metre.
• In Bangladesh, the increase in the number of people at risk is anticipated to be more modest – a rise of 60% to 70%. This, however, factors in declining coastal populations in future.
• If the Paris Agreement climate goals of 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels are adhered to, the modelling showed, population exposures to flooding would drop close to zero in that country.
• But in India, even in this scenario, the exposures still showed an alarming increase between 50% to 80% more people compared to 2020 are expected to experience flooding in future.
• The study presents a critical piece of evidence in support of ramping down our greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goals, where other lines of evidence all too often focus on high income countries where impacts are lower, and adaptation is more easily achievable.