Ojaank IAS Academy

OJAANK IAS ACADEMY

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OJAANK IAS ACADEMY

Future scenario of India and the world

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Rounded Rectangle: Future scenario of India and the world

India needs to promote a ‘Gandhian’ approach to access solutions that rely on local systems to help the world move out of a ‘Bollyworld’-like scenario.

If we look at the history of prophecy, it has not proved fruitful every time. Actually there are flaws in the forecast of the economist. These do not account for the effects of social conditions and domestic politics on economic policies.

Scenario planning is also a problem. It helps to identify the range of possible outcomes and impacts. The World Economic Forum in association with the Confederation of Indian Industry did a similar exercise in 2000 for India’s development.

To understand this, it is very important to understand system thinking as well. It distinguishes ‘scenario planning’ from traditional planning by prior understanding of the underlying variables that may disrupt the forecast of the economist’s model.

India and the World: Three Scenarios of 2025

This scenario is based on a report jointly published by the World Economic Forum and the Confederation of Indian Industry in 2005. It consists of the following 3 points-

(1)Bollywood Scenario: The opening up of India’s economy has led to a rapid increase in the wealth of the top 1%. The violence was not confined to “Naxal areas” and got mixed with entertainment.

(2) Stuck India: In this case the “principle of change” is upward. It showed how a bigoted government would undermine India’s democracy and bring its economy to a standstill.

(3) India First: Here, the changes needed by the people are generated by them. It is predicted that if India’s policymakers follow this model of change, economic growth will be more inclusive.

rise of reactionary force

Rising inequality and insecurity around the world has led reactionary forces in many countries, including China and Russia, to join the BRICS. They have also appeared in India.

India should promote the ‘India First’ model in hosting the G-20 this year. This is in line with the Gandhian approach seeking local systems solutions to environmental and economic problems.

-OJAANK SHUKLA

( DIRECTOR โ€“ OJAANK IAS )


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